ABSTRACT
In agent-based social simulations (ABSS), an artificial population of intelligent agents that imitate human behavior is used to investigate complex phenomena within social systems. This is particularly useful for decision makers, where ABSS can provide a sandpit for investigating the effects of policies prior to their implementation. During the Covid-19 pandemic, for instance, sophisticated models of human behavior enable the investigation of the effects different interventions can have and even allow for analyzing why a certain situation occurred or why a specific behavior can be observed. In contrast to other applications of simulation, the use for policy making significantly alters the process of model building and assessment, and requires the modelers to follow different paradigms. In this chapter, we report on a tutorial that was organized as part of the ACAI 2021 summer school on AI in Berlin, with the goal of introducing agent-based social simulation as a method for facilitating policy making. The tutorial pursued six Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs), which are accomplished by three sessions, each of which consists of both a conceptual and a practical part. We observed that the PhD students participating in this tutorial came from a variety of different disciplines, where ABSS is mostly applied as a research method. Thus, they do often not have the possibility to discuss their approaches with ABSS experts. Tutorials like this one provide them with a valuable platform to discuss their approaches, to get feedback on their models and architectures, and to get impulses for further research. © 2023, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
ABSTRACT
When planning interventions to limit the spread of Covid-19, the current state of knowledge about the disease and specific characteristics of the population need to be considered. Simulations can facilitate policy making as they take prevailing circumstances into account. Moreover, they allow for the investigation of the potential effects of different interventions using an artificial population. Agent-based Social Simulation (ABSS) is argued to be particularly useful as it can capture the behavior of and interactions between individuals. We performed a systematic literature reviewand identified 126 articles that describe ABSS of Covid-19 transmission processes. Our reviewshowed that ABSS is widely used for investigating the spread of Covid-19. Existing models are very heterogeneous with respect to their purpose, the number of simulated individuals, and the modeled geographical region, as well as how they model transmission dynamics, disease states, human behavior, and interventions. To this end, a discrepancy can be identified between the needs of policy makers and what is implemented by the simulation models. This also includes how thoroughly the models consider and represent the real world, e.g. in terms of factors that affect the transmission probability or how humans make decisions. Shortcomingswere also identified in the transparency of the presented models, e.g. in terms of documentation or availability, as well as in their validation, which might limit their suitability for supporting decision-making processes. We discuss how these issues can be mitigated to further establish ABSS as a powerful tool for crisis management.